【摘要】 针对常用的水文水资源不确定性分析理论的不足,文章从方法论和实证角度阐述了基于集对分析的水文水资源系统分析计算方法、预测方法、评价方法及决策分析方法等的理论基础。结果表明,采用根据实际水文水资源不确定性系统的背景分析构建集对和联系数,建立基于联系数的数学模型和解析基于联系数的数学模型这一水文水资源集对分析的方法论,综合分析处理水文水资源系统中的各种不确定性问题是可行和有效的,深入开展基于集对分析的水文水资源系统分析、预测、评价、决策分析、优化、模拟、推理和控制研究,既可进一步认识和处理水文水资源不确定性系统的复杂特征,也有助于丰富、发展和完善水文水资源不确定性分析理论,是水文水资源学和集对分析研究的新发展方向,在水资源系统脆弱性分析、水旱灾害风险评估等方面具有广泛应用前景。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to overcome the shortcomings of the common uncertainty analysis theories of hydrological and water resource system,the theoretical foundation of the main set pair analysis methods for hydrological and water resource systems is discussed from the perspective of methodology and empirical research,such as analysis and computation methods,prediction methods,evaluation methods and decision-making analysis methods.The results show that applying the methodology of set pair analysis to the hydrological and water resource systems is both feasible and effective,which consists of constructing set pair and connection number according to the background analysis of the uncertainty hydrological and water resource system,and establishing and analyzing connection number based mathematical model.The method research of systems analysis,prediction,evaluation,decision-making analysis,optimization,simulation,reasoning and control based on set pair analysis theory can not only expose and deal with more complex characteristic of the uncertainty hydrological and water resource system,but also enrich,develop and perfect the uncertainty analysis theories of hydrological and water resource system.Such study becomes a new subject of hydrological and water resource theories and set pair analysis,and has broad application prospects in hydrological and water resource fields such as vulnerability analysis of water system,risk assessment of flood and drought.更多还原