【摘要】 目的探讨应用多个模型线性组合进行职业病发病趋势预测的可行性。方法收集1984-2011年武汉市职业病诊断资料,分别利用Excel和SPSS软件对年发病数进行灰色模型和自回归移动求和平均模型建模拟合,将两模型得到的预测值加权组合形成最终预测值。结果组合模型较好地拟合了既往时间段的发病序列;2012年武汉市职业病发病数预测数为15。结论组合模型较单一预测模型的精度要高,能够较好地预测职业病的发病趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the application of multiple compound modeling system in predicting the occurrence tendency of occupational diseases.Methods The data of occupational diseases in Wuhan during 1984~2011 were collected and analyzed.A simulation,based on grey dynamics model and auto regression integrated moving average,was acquired using Excel and SPSS software.Results The simulation based on compound model fitted to all the previous data.The occurrence of occupational disease in Wuhan in 2012 was predicted to be 15.Conclusions Compound modeling system shows better precision and accuracy than the single modeling system.更多还原