【摘要】 为了揭示关中地区主要河流天然径流系列丰枯状态及其变化规律,研究结合游程理论、Markov过程和时间序列方法,对关中地区渭河干流及其十余条重要支流的丰枯变化进行了系统分析。结果表明:偏枯状态是关中地区河流的主要状态,大多数河流的单独丰水概率要比单独枯水概率大,而多年连续枯水游程概率大于连续丰水概率,即关中河流较易发生单独丰水年和连续干旱年。这些表明关中地区河流的径流变化大,旱涝并存且干旱缺水问题相对突出。更多还原

【Abstract】 For revealing the runoff status and its change feature of main rivers on the central Shaanxi plain,combining run-length analysis method,Markov process theory and time series theory,runoff change characteristics of Weihe river and its 14 tributaries were analyzed systematically.The result shows that the slight dry was the main status on the region,the flood probability of single year was higher than the dry probability.On the other hand,the continuous multi-annual dry probability was higher than the flood probability,that means it was more likely to happen single flood year and continuous dry year on the rivers of the central Shaanxi plain.Those conclusions indicate that runoff variation was remarkable,drought and flood was coexisted but drought and water shortage problem was more serious.更多还原