【摘要】 本文利用HS6位码产品数据,使用局部均衡分析方法计算了中国与潜在FTA伙伴国的贸易效应及其产品分布,据此提出了中国潜在FTA伙伴国的选择战略和可行路径。分析结果表明最佳路径首选巴西作为谈判对象,其次选择俄罗斯作为谈判对象,再次选择加拿大作为谈判对象。此外,本文的建议还需要结合参考其他因素(如政治外交关系等)做出决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper processes HS 6-digit disaggregated data with the partial equilibrium methodology to evaluate China’s trade effect with its potential FTA partner countries and the corresponding product distribution.The selection strategy for China to choose FTA partners is then proposed in this paper.Specifically,Brazil is recommended as the most preferred choice for China to engage,followed by Russia and then Canada.Besides,this paper stresses that such a selection strategy should be made with regard to other influential factors such as political and diplomatic ties.更多还原