【摘要】 针对市场环境下地区电网的故障风险较难通过可靠性方法评估,且未能考虑到经济性和外部影响的问题,提出了基于电网建设经营的风险评估模型。通过构建以电网供应能力、用电需求、经济效益、气象及政策等指标组成的完整故障风险指标体系。采用因子分析法提取出包含原有指标信息的公共因子,利用支持向量机构建评估模型。算例结果验证了该模型的合理性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In view of not considering economy and external influences,it is difficult to evaluate failure risk of regional power grid in market environment by reliability methods.A risk assessment model based on power grid construction and management is proposed,that is,by means of constructing a complete failure risk index system composed of such indices as power supply capability,power demands,economic effect,meteorological influence and policy,common factors including information of original indices are extracted by factor analysis,and then utilizing support vector machine(SVM) this risk assessment model is built.The reasonableness of the proposed model is verified by case study.更多还原