【摘要】 排放情景下未来气候变化和土地利用变化及其水文响应是流域管理十分关心的问题。本文通过耦合土地利用/覆被变化模型Dyna-CLUE和水文模型SWAT,选择政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的两个温室气体排放情景(A1B和B1),对黑河流域中上游土地利用变化及水文响应进行情景分析。模型校准和验证结果表明,Dyna-CLUE和SWAT的模拟精度均比较满意。土地利用变化情景分析表明,不同排放情景下未来黑河流域中上游土地利用变化幅度均不大,同一情景下土地利用变化在中上游表现出各自的特点。水文响应多情景分析表明,不考虑土地利用变化,相对于参考情景即以1990-2009年历史数据模拟结果,高排放A1B情景下黑河流域上游和中游2011-2030年年平均河川径流分别呈微弱减少和明显增加的趋势,而低排放B1情景下分别呈明显减少和微弱减少的趋势。同一情景下,水文响应具有明显的区域差异性。考虑土地利用变化,高排放A1B情景下黑河流域上游和中游2011-2030年年平均河川径流分别小于和大于不考虑土地利用变化的情况,低排放B1情景下均小于不考虑土地利用变化的情况。分析表明,排放情景下气候变化和土地利用变化导致流域水文水资源的变化,而土地利用变化可能加剧或削弱气候变化导致的水文响应。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use and climate change under emission scenarios and their hydrological responses are some most concerned issues in watershed management. By coupling a land use land change model, Dyna-CLUE, and a hydrological model, SWAT, this paper predicts land use changes and hydrological responses in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin(HRB) under two emission scenarios, A1B and B1, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). After calibration, the models validate their applicability in the study area. Scenario analysis shows no obvious land use changes in the upper and middle reaches of HRB with both emission scenarios while with a same scenario, land use changes present regional characteristics. In terms of future hydrological responses, if we only consider the climate change, comparing to the reference scenario that is created with historical data of 1990~2009, mean annual streamflow in the period of 2011~2030 shows a slight decrease in the upper reaches of HRB and an obvious increase in the middle reaches under the high emission scenario(A1B), and an obvious decrease and a slight decrease respectively under the low emission scenario(B1).Under a same scenario, hydrological responses present regional characteristics in the upper and middle reaches.As climate change also causes land use change which in turn impacts hydrological responses, we compare the joint impact case with the case of climate change only. Mean annual streamflow in the period of 2011~2030 becomes less in the upper reache and greater in the middle reache under the high emission scenario(A1B), and less in both reaches under the low emission scenario(B1). The analysis indicates that climate and land use changes under emission scenarios in the study area will lead to hydrological and water resources changes and the land use change may intensify or weaken hydrological responses caused by climate change.更多还原