【摘要】 为了实现光伏发电系统发电量的在线快速预测,提高光伏并网后电网的稳定性及安全性,本文提出了一种基于相似日典型变化趋势的超短期光伏发电预测方法。通过选择相似日,获得光伏发电功率的典型变化趋势,结合线性外推方法,得到超短期发电预测数据。最后,通过实际的算法案例进行验证,表明本文所用方法具有一定的推广价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to achieve online quickly forecasting of the photovoltaic generation and improve the stability and security of the grid,a practical forecast method of ultra-short-term PV generation based on the typical tend is proposed.By selecting similar days,the typical trend of photovoltaic generating power is got.Combined with the linear extrapolation method,ultra-short-term forecasting power is measured.Finally,the practical application of this method shows that the method is feasible and has some promotional value.更多还原