【摘要】 火山喷发会给人类带来灾难性的损失,影响火山灾害损失的因素众多,厘定这些影响因素之间的关系并确定他们对火山灾害损失影响的权重,对减轻火山灾害损失是十分必要的。本文选取了14个对火山灾害损失影响较为重要的因素作为研究对象,应用层次分析法构建层次分析模型,建立判断矩阵,计算出各个影响因素对火山灾害损失影响的权重。通过分析发现,自然因素对火山灾害损失影响的权重最大,除去自然因素外,社会因素和管理因素的下层因素中,火山预警系统对火山灾害损失影响的程度最大,说明做好火山预警工作对减轻火山灾害损失是至关重要的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Volcanic disaster is one of the most serious natural hazard.Volcano eruption will cause catastrophic losses to human being.Volcanic disaster has many influence factors.Determining the relationship and weights of these influence factors is very indispensable to prevent and reduce volcanic disaster.14 factors were selected as the major influence factors of volcanic disaster,and analyzed by AHP.14 influence factors were divided into 2 levels.The hierarchical structure model was constituted by the evaluated-goal and the first and second levels evaluation factors.The hierarchical structure model consists of four judgment matrixes.The values of these matrixes were obtained by experts,according to importance comparison scores.The weights of these 14 influence factors were acquired by AHP.The weighs analysis result shows that the influence of natural factor is the largest,and the volcanic warning system has the largest weight in the second level expect the natural factor.It is indicated that the volcanic warning system is very important to prevent and reduce volcanic disaster.更多还原