【摘要】 针对物价运行环境的悄然变化,本文以货币数量论和结构性通胀理论为基础,使用1978-2011年的数据对工业化、城市化进程中粮食价格波动对我国CPI的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:我国CPI上涨的货币现象显著,人均产出水平与货币供给水平提高的综合作用抑制了CPI的较快上涨;与加快的工业化进程驱动对CPI上涨不同,城市化水平的提高却对降低CPI有着积极意义;粮食价格水平的提高进一步助推了CPI爬升。为此,应将新型工业化、新型城镇化与农业现代化协调推进,保障农业生产,维持农产品价格稳定;与此同时,应不断提升货币流通速度,降低CPI上涨的货币压力,并及时调整CPI权重,提升CPI指数的质量。更多还原

【Abstract】 How the grain price affect on the CPI in the process of industrialization and urbanization,which is a central issue of the paperbecause of the changing on the price environment.The results of the empirical study,based on the quantity theory of money and the structural inflation theory,using 1978-2011 data of China,show that the increase of money supply significantly pushes up the CPI,but the effect of perGDP is opposite;AS like money and perGDP,industrialization has a significant positive effect on the CPI,urbanization has significant negative effect.Therefore,we should coordinately promote industrialization、urbanization and agricultural to maintain the stable of agricultural production and the grain price;at the same time, we should increase money velocity in order to reduce the rising pressure of CPI from the money supply,and timely adjustment the weights of CPI to enhance the quality of CPI.更多还原