【摘要】 基于LEAP模型框架构建北京市城市客运交通-能源-环境模型,计算得到北京市2020年在不同政策情景下的能源需求趋势和常规大气污染气体及温室气体的环境排放变化趋势。研究认为:在北京市对城市客运需求量逐渐增加的前提下,大力发展公共交通尤其是轨道交通以及限制私家车的上升趋势势在必行;同时,改善终端利用层次的能源结构对于降低能源需求以及减缓大气污染压力具有重要作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on LEAP model framework,the Beijing urban passenger transport-energy-environment model was established.Then,the changes in trends of energy demand and conventional air pollution gases and environmental emissions of greenhouse gases in different policy scenarios of Beijing were calculated in 2020.It points out that under the premise of Beijing’s increasing demand for urban passenger transport,vigorously developing public transport,especially the rail transport,and restricting the upward development trend of private cars are imperative,while improving energy structure of the end-uses will play an important role in reducing energy demand and slowing the pressure on air quality.更多还原