【摘要】 运用连续小波对新疆天山北坡的乌鲁木齐河上游1958-2006年的月均气温(MMT)、月降水量(MP)和月均径流量(MMR)变化进行了多时间尺度特征分析.结果表明:1960—2005年月均气温、月降水量和月均径流量三者始终存在着12个月左右尺度的主周期,并呈现出全局性特征,信号的强弱依次为MMT、MP和MMR;同时,MMT存在66个月和96个月的次周期,MP存在6个月、30个月和72个月的次周期,MMR亦存在6个月、24个月、36个月和72个月的次周期.在此基础上,对其进行交叉小波分析后发现,MMR与MMT、MP的相关程度除了表现为12个月的主周期和6个月的次周期外,MMT对MMR的影响还表现在34个月和72个月的次周期上,而MP对MMR的影响也表现在24个月、36个月和72个月的次周期上.MMT对MMR的影响除了12个月的主周期表现为正相关外,6个月的周期相位亦存在正负交错的现象,说明在该尺度上MMT对MMR的影响既有正面的也有负面的;MMT对MMR的影响在其他次周期上均表现为负相关或近似负相关;而MP对MMR的影响在主次周期上均表现为显著的正相关.更多还原

【Abstract】 The wavelet analysis method is adopted to analyze the multi-time scale characteristics of monthly mean air temperature(MMT),monthly precipitation(MP)and monthly mean runoff(MMR)in the upstream of therümqi River from 1958to 2006.The results show that there are significant primary periods with 12-month scale of MMT,MP and MMR from 1958to 2006,and the order of oscillation signals is MMT> MMR > MP.Furthermore,there are 66-month and 96month secondary periods for MMT,6-month,30month and 72-month secondary periods for MP, and 6-month,24-month,36-month and 72-month secondary periods for MMR. Moreover,crosswavelet transformation shows that the correlations between MMR and MMT,MMR and MP are not only reflected in 12-month primary periods and 6month secondary periods,but also in 34-month and 72-month secondary periods between MMR and MMT,and 24-month,36-month and 72-month secondary periods between MMR and MP.It is found that there are positive correlation at 12month scale period between MMR and MMT,nonsignificant correlation at 6-month scale period between MMR and MMT,and negative correlation at other scale periods between MMR and MMT. However,all scale periods between MMR and MP are of significantly positive correlation.更多还原