【摘要】 针对地铁运营安全问题和现行评价方法的不足,提出了基于网络分析法(Analytic Network Process,ANP)和Vague集的新方法。首先,介绍了地铁运营系统和安全管理的特点,从人、机、环、管4个方面构建了地铁运营安全评价指标体系;考虑指标间存在的相关性问题,引入网络分析法进行解决,并对所有指标逐一赋权;针对传统模糊数学的信息不全面,介绍了Vague集的基本理论,基于此提出了新的安全评价模型。其次,给出了用此方法进行地铁运营安全评价的详细步骤,先制定相应安全等级的评语集,再计算各指标相应的Vague集评价值,按照隶属度最大原则对地铁运营安全情况作出综合评判。最后,以某地铁项目为实例进行实证分析。结果表明,该模型与事实相符,且比传统评价方法能更好地满足地铁运营安全管理的实际要求。更多还原

【Abstract】 The given paper intends to propose a new safety comprehensive evaluation method for the urban subway operation safety based on ANP and vague sets theory.As we know,the urban subway operation is a complicated system,which makes its safety and security management ambiguous and uncertain for operation.While working out appropriate necessary steps to prevent unexpected incidents in advance,we are trying to initiate a set of effective measures to solve such a hardcore problem.First of all,based on the study of relevant laws,rules and regulations,we have established a safety evaluation index system of subway operation safety while taking into account the relation among the passengers,subway wagons and locomotives,environment and administration.Secondly,while considering the correlation among the indices,it would be necessary to introduce the analytic network process(ANP) theory to make the comprehensive evaluation of all the influential indexes involved.To make sure all the mentioned indices help to contribute to the subway operation safety,we have to give them proper weight accordingly by the improved weight-providing means.Secondly,to overcome the inadequacy of the traditional fuzzy sets theory in handling the data of urban subway operation safety,we have broadly introduced the basic theory of vague sets.Thus,we have built up an ameliorated new comprehensive evaluation model for the subway operation safety control.Thirdly,a proper order has been laid out for the detailed analysis work can be done step by step for the successful implementation of the new method.In so doing,the evaluation procedure can be proceeded in accordance with the safety grade need,all the values of the indices’ vague sets can be worked out accurately.Thus,the right status of urban subway operation safety can be acquired rapidly on the basis of the maximum membership principle in vague sets.And,last of all,we have done corresponding empirical analysis with a subway in operation,in which the evaluation results have been obtained.The results prove that this evaluation method can meet the need of the safety control reality,and can bring more accurate and effective evaluations than the traditional ones.更多还原