【摘要】 基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20%。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the relationship between the representative household’s optimal consumption decision and fiscal policy, this study estimates the effects of Chinese fiscal policy on the marginal propensity of rural and urban residents to consume. The results show that since 1998, the marginal propensity of rural and urban residents to consume has witnessed a fall of over 20%. In addition to the factors of income distribution, economic development, anticipation and consumption structure, the declining marginal propensity to consume is also related with the operation of fiscal policy. The aggregate effects of unanticipated fiscal policy on the marginal propensity are significantly negative. And the strategic options with unanticipated tax increase as a financing tool have greatly restricted the positive effects of structural adjustments. Thus, in order to boost residential consumption, the government should not only enhance the residents’ consumption capacity through revenue increase, but also stabilize their anticipation of consumption through revenue and expenditure adjustments.更多还原