【摘要】 以离散选择模型为基础,通过引入心理学中的随机效用模型解释了整体效用中由不可观测因素带来的随机效用部分,结合包括燃油价格在内的多种市场因素及各车型自身属性,给出了一个市场份额模型,并讨论了燃油价格波动对于不同汽车款型市场份额的影响.区别于以往基于人口统计学数据的传统方法,直接模拟了总体市场选择行为,一方面使方法简化从而提高了可操作性,另一方面也避免了由于人口统计学数据中的误差对模型整体准确性的影响.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the discrete choice model,this work adopted a random utility model from psychology theories to explain the random utility resulting from unobservable attributes in the overall utility.A market share model was constructed in view of various factors including gasoline prices,multiple market factors and the attributes of each model,and a discussion of the relationship between gasoline prices and market shares was performed.Different from the previous demographic data based approaches,this work simulated the choice behavior of the whole market,thereby presenting a simpler and more practical approach.Meanwhile,the possible error brought by demographic data was avoided consequently.更多还原