【摘要】 以豫北地区32个市县为研究区域,从造成干旱灾害的4个因子,即致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个角度出发,选取了包括气象、土壤、人口、社会经济在内的17项指标,在格网GIS技术的支持下,对评价体系中的各指标进行10 km×10 km尺度的网格化表达。应用自然灾害风险指数法,熵组合权重法和加权综合分析法,建立了干旱灾害风险评价模型;通过选取典型案例年,运用最优分割理论确定了干旱灾害风险阈值,并利用GIS技术绘制了豫北地区的干旱灾害风险区划图。结果显示:豫北地区的高风险区主要集中在濮阳市区、濮阳县、清丰县、南乐县、新乡市区;而西部的济源市、孟州市,以及原阳县风险较轻。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking 32 counties located in the north of Henan Province as the research area,17 indexes related to natural,social and economic conditions were selected,from the aspects of hazard,exposure,vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability.With support of the gridding GIS technology,this paper gave each index in the evaluation system,the spatial expression of 20 km×20 km grid scale.The drought disaster risk evaluation model was established by using nature disaster risk index method,Weighted Comprehensive Analysis(WCA) and synthetic weighted grade method.By selecting typical cases of drought years and using optimal partitioning theory,drought disaster risk threshold was determined and a risk zoning map was presented with the support of GIS.The results indicated that the areas with high level of drought disaster risk were mainly located in Puyang city,Puyang county,Qingfeng county,Nanle county and Xinxiang city;while the western areas such as Jiyuan city,Mengzhou city and Yuanyang county showed a low level of drought disaster risk.更多还原