【摘要】 近年来干旱已严重影响到自然生态环境的平衡及人类社会、经济的可持续发展。而墒情预报是干旱管理的一项基础工作。本文分析了国内外墒情预报的模型方法,并将新安江模型移用于土壤墒情的预报研究中,建立了基于水量平衡的土壤墒情预报方案。从模型的预测结果可以看出,模拟预报结果和实测值基本一致,该方法精度是较高的。新安江模型预报土壤含水量的模型结构简单,涉及参数少且物理意义明确,易于调试优选,便于在实际工作中推广使用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Drought has influenced the balance of nature and sustainable development of human society in recent years.Soil moisture content forecasting is an important part for drought management.Xinanjiang model is introduced to soil moisture forecasting after the analysis of current model.Xinanjiang model is constructed based on water balance.The model is applied to Helongjinag province.The results show that forecasting values are in agreement with the observed values.Because the structure of Xinanjiang model is simple,physical meaning is clear and parameters are easy to adjust,it is feasible to apply the model to forecasting soil moisture content.更多还原