【摘要】 不同发展水平缺水地区的水资源边际生产价值大小是不一样的。本文选取北京和陕西为研究案例区,根据计量经济学中的柯布-道格拉斯(Cobb-Dauglas)生产函数理论,将水资源作为生产要素,并结合劳动力和资本要素,建立了水资源生产函数模型。在以上研究的基础上,以资本、劳动力、用水量为自变量,第一、二、三产业及综合生产GDP为因变量,采用岭回归方法对模型参数进行了拟合计算,同时计算分析了2007年研究案例区第一、二、三产业及综合生产用水的产出弹性、价格弹性及水资源边际生产价值(即水资源影子价格)。通过分析比较研究案例区之间及案例区内各产业间的计算结果,辨识了区域与行业间的用水特征及效率差异,分析了研究案例区产业布局与水资源配置中存在的主要问题,并对今后研究案例区的经济社会发展战略提出了建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Marginal production values of water in water deficient areas with different development levels are not of the same size.Based on Cobb-Douglas production function of economics,this paper selects Beijing and Shaanxi as case-study areas to establish production function of water resources.In the model,water resources are regarded as one of the elements of production to be integrated into the function together with fund and labor.On the basis of the above studies,this paper adopts the ridge regression method taking capital,labor forces and total water consumption as independent variables and taking GDP of the primary industry,the secondary industry,the tertiary industry and the aggregate production as dependent variables,to make a fitting calculation of the model parameters.Then it calculates and analyzes output elasticity,price elasticity and marginal production value of water(that is,the shadow price of water resources) of the primary industry,the second industry,the tertiary industry and the aggregate production of the case-study areas in 2007.By comparing and analyzing the computational results of the case-study areas and inter-industries,it identifies the different characteristics and efficiency of water use between the region and the main industry,analyzes the major issues of the industrial layout and water resources allocation,and finally puts forward the strategy for social-economic-development in the future.The analysis result in this paper is of guiding significance for the research of the social-economio development in other water deficient areas and can serve as macro reference for industrial structure adjustment,inter-industry and the adjustment of water price policy.更多还原