【摘要】 为了评估因素敏感性对边坡稳定可靠度的影响,针对岩石边坡中最为常见的平面剪切型边坡,在定值法计算边坡稳定安全系数的基础上,用单因素分析法、极差分析法和方差分析法对边坡几何、计算物理力学参数的敏感性进行了对比分析,然后采用Rosenblueth法对不同随机变量的组合进行了边坡稳定可靠度分析。研究结果表明:单因素分析、极差分析和方差分析得到了一致的参数敏感度排序,方差分析结果离散程度最大、分析效果最优;在假定参数变异性相同条件下,当随机变量取敏感性较大的因素时,可靠度分析的破坏概率也较大;对于敏感性较大的因素,不管是强度参数或者几何参数,若存在一定的变异性,在可靠度分析中都不应忽视,否则将对结果产生重大影响;在边坡可靠度分析前先确定各个稳定影响因素的敏感性排序,再根据实际参数的变异性选取随机变量,分析结果往往更加合理。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to evaluate the influence of factor sensitivity on slope stability reliability,aimed at plane shear slope which is most common in rock slope,based on the safety factor of slope stability obtained by fixed value method and using single factor analysis,range analysis and variance analysis methods,comparative sensitivity analysis of slope geometry and physical mechanics parameters was carried out.For several combinations of random variables with different sensitivity,analysis of slope stability reliability was carried out by Rosenblueth method.The results show that single factor analysis,range analysis and variance analysis can obtain consistent sorting of parameter sensitivity,and the result of variance analysis has maximum dispersion degree,so variance analysis is the best;on the assumption that the variability of parameters is the same,the higher sensitivity level of factors selected as random variables,the larger failure probability;for factors with larger sensitivity,whether they are strength parameters or geometric parameters,if there is variability,their influence on the analysis of slope stability reliability cannot be ignored,otherwise they will produce significant effect on the result;before the analysis of slope reliability,firstly determining the sorting of parameter sensitivity,and choosing random variables according to the variability of parameters,the results will be more reasonable.更多还原