【摘要】 目前多依据风能特征指标对单个风电场进行风资源评估,评估结果对区域能源规划所起到的参考作用比较有限。对此,提出了基于平均风速参与因子的区域风资源评估方法。按照风速观测站的位置进行地理划分,在各站风速历史数据中合理取样;在假设风速服从2参数威布尔(Weibull)分布的基础上,采用矩量法计算出各样本的风速分布参数;之后建立多维自回归模型,求得各样本风速序列的相互影响系数,应用所提平均风速参与因子方法求得区域等效风速分布参数,进行区域风资源评估。以某地10个风速观测站实测数据为样本,进行了算例分析。结果表明,所提风资源评估方法计算结果与实测数据统计结果较为接近,能有效解决区域风能能源规划中风资源评价的瓶颈问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Now wind resource assessment is mainly for individual wind farm using wind resource indexes,the results of which provide limited reference for regional energy planning.For this,a new wind resource assessment method was proposed,using average wind speed participation factor.The wind observation station was divided into groups according to their locations.Sampling was reasonably done from wind speed historical data at each station and the wind speed distribution parameters of each station were calculated based on the assumption that wind speed submits to two-parameter Weibull distribution.Then,a multidimensional autoregressive model was built to gain influence coefficients of all wind speed sequences;the regional equivalent wind speed distribution parameters were achieved by the proposed average wind speed participation factor approach,and were applied to assess region’s wind resource.Case analysis was carried out on a region owning 10 wind observation stations.The results show that the proposed method achieves the assessment values with less error to statistic results.The approach can effectively stroke the bottlenecks in regional wind energy resource assessment.更多还原