【摘要】 突发事件的复杂情境涉及自然、人文、组织、资源等因素,提升对事件情境的认知能力,分析事件发展的可能态势并建立有效应对是"情景-应对"研究的重要课题.利用情境重构方法建立突发事件的参考情景,可以弥补突发事件实时信息的不完备性,是进行态势预测并建立应对决策的有效方法.在分析事件情境要素的构成以及情境与情景构成关系基础上.构建了由情境要素识别到建立情景描述模糊规则,再到通过规则推理方法建立事件态势分析的参考情境库的研究思路.给出了情境重构中的模糊规则设计与案例.更多还原

【Abstract】 Complex context of emergencies,involving natural,cultural,organizational,resource and other factors,is fundamental to identify the activities and scenarios.Based on analysis of relations between event context and scenario changing,elements of context are defined in perspective of structure and transformation. Research ideas are described from cognition of context elements to the description of context,and to building fuzzy rules of scenario reasoning.For context elements,a fuzzy rule for scenario changing in multi-context is designed,and a method based on fuzzy rules reasoning for emergency scenario planning under situation of incomplete information is proposed.更多还原