【摘要】 采用1990年1月以来居民消费价格指数(CPI)的月度数据,运用随机域回归模型、系列随机域的非线性检验方法和贝叶斯估计方法,对中国通货膨胀率与通货膨胀不确定性的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现:通货膨胀率与通货膨胀之间具有双向关系。通货膨胀率引起了通货膨胀不确定性,两者呈现U型关系;较高的通货膨胀不确定性引起通货膨胀率先升后降,呈现倒U曲线关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Random fields regression model,a battery of tests for neglected nonlinearity based on the theory of random fields,Bayesian Estimation were combined to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in China since January 1990.The results show that the relationship between two variables is an asymmetric U-shaped curve,convincingly support Friedman’s hypothesis that a rise in the inflation rate increases inflation uncertainty.Turning to Cukierman-Meltzer’s hypothesis,the relationship between two variables is down U-shaped curve,where the left side has positive but the right side has negative effects.更多还原