【摘要】 本文选取了2009～2012年的季度数据利用C-D形式的函数建立了回归模型,计算出我国服装对美的出口弹性为4.3;选取2000～2011年的季度数据利用向量自回归模型发现中美服装贸易差额对汇率冲击的脉冲响应在5年之后会达到-3.4%,汇率的方差贡献率达到42.7%,从而得出人民币兑美元升值对我国服装对美贸易有负面影响的结论,同时实证了马歇尔-勒纳条件、"J"曲线效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 This text selected quarterly data from 2009 to 2012 years and used C-D function to establish a regression model.The calculated results of clothing export price elasticity to the America is 4.3;The text selected quarterly data of 2000～2011 years and used VAR model to get a conclusion that the exchange rate of RMB against dollar impact make impulse response of clothing trade reduce to-3.4% and variance contribution rate of the exchange rate reach to 42.7% after 5 years.So,the exchange rate rises will bring negative effect to apparel trade to China while Marshall-Lerner conditions and"J"Curves effect in China clothing trade with the US is applicable.更多还原