【摘要】 洪水淹没水位空间分布是防洪科学决策和洪灾评估不可或缺的重要信息。依据趋势面分析基本原理,以"莫拉克"台风期间洪灾较为严重的温州市平阳县麻步镇为研究区域,结合洪水淹没水位调查,建立了该镇洪水淹没水位空间分布的一次和二次趋势面模拟模型,并利用调查点水位进行了模型验证。结果表明,麻步镇洪水淹没水位一次和二次趋势面模拟模型的拟合程度很好,拟合度系数R2分别达到0.95和0.96,F检验在0.01水平上均呈极显著;一次趋势面模型对各验证点洪水淹没水位模拟的平均绝对误差为0.1m,比二次趋势面模型对相应验证点淹没水位模拟的平均绝对误差减小了0.3。更多还原

【Abstract】 Flood level is important information for flood control decision and flood loss evaluation.Based on the principles of trend surface analysis and field survey of flooded areas of Mabu Town in Wenzhou City during typhoon Matsa,a simple and quadratic trend surface model of flood level was developed and validated.The results showed that the prediction of the model matched the field data of the flood levels quite well,indicating the strong coefficients of determination of 0.95 and 0.96 for the first and second order surface simulation(p<0.01),respectively.The average absolute error of the first-order model was 0.1 m in validation,while that of the second-order model was 0.3 m lower.更多还原