【摘要】 分析了ARMA模型构建中的数学方法,构建了低碳经济背景下中国铅精炼企业产销存量预测的ARMA模型,检验结果显示,ARMA(4,0)模型是对低碳经济背景下中国铅精炼企业产销存量进行短期预测的较优模型,同时最后采用该模型对中国铅精炼企业未来5年的产销存量进行了预测,并就预测结果提出了促进我国精炼铅市场低碳可持续发展的三种政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the mathematical methods building the ARMA model,and build a ARMA Forecasting Model of Lead Refining Enterprise Sales -Stock under Low-Carbon Economy,test results show,ARMA(4,0) model is a better short-term forecasting model how to forecast Lead Refining Enterprise Sales-Stock,Finally,the article also uses the model to forecast Chinese refined lead marketing stock in the next five years,and predicted the three policy recommendations in order to promote low-carbon sustainable development of China’s refined lead market based on the results.更多还原