【摘要】 通过对鲜水河断裂带跨断层短水准、短基线资料的分析研究,系统地提取测区内外5.5级以上地震前跨断层形变前兆异常特征,并作详细的整理、分析,综合得出监测区及附近中短期强震预测指标及预报方法。其结果显示:跨断层形变观测资料大多在震前1～3年出现异常,其异常表现形式以断层活动停滞、反向、突跳为主,震前半年左右异常发育至最高,临震前有明显回落,其前兆意义较为明确;水平形变测量的预测成功率高于垂直形变测量。更多还原

【Abstract】 The observation data of the short baseline and leveling at the fault-crossing deformation measurement sites along the Xianshuihe faults are analyzed. The precursory abnormal characteristics are summarized from the fault-crossing deformation observation data. The earthquakes of magnitude over 5.5 (medium to strong earthquakes) occurred within the Xianshuihe seismic areas are used for our study. The predictive indexes of strong earthquakes and the predictive methods for the monitoring areas are put forward. Our study shows that the abnormal indexes derived from deformation observation data along the Xianshuihe faults may indicate an earthquake before 1 to 3 years. The abnormal index shows a change state from locking to inversing and then moving again. Most of cases the abnormal index reach the highest value a half year before an earthquake. And then the index falls a little bit near an earthquake. In our study cases the success rate of the horizontal deformation observation data is higher than that of vertical data.更多还原