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A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

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【Author】 LI Xiao-juan,WENG Xiang-yu,XIE Ding-sheng,LIANG Jian(Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510080 China)

【机构】 Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory；

【摘要】 Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones(hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008,correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature(SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction.A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors.Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones(hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008,correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature(SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction.A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors.Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.更多还原

【关键词】 weather forecast； binomial prediction model； China-landfalling TCs； intensity and frequency；
【Key words】 weather forecast； binomial prediction model； China-landfalling TCs； intensity and frequency；

【基金】 Physical Statistic Model of Tropical Cyclones Grading Forecast under the category of the Professional Construction Project established by CMA in 2008;Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Project “Research on Meteorological Forecast and Early Warning during the Asian Games 2010 in Guangzhou” (2007B030401008);major project of Key Meteorological Technology Integration and Application Program by CMA “Integration and Application of Meteorological Forecast Service Technology during the Asian Games 2010 in Guangzhou” (CMAGJ2011Z06)

【文献出处】 Journal of Tropical Meteorology ,热带气象学报(英文版) , 编辑部邮箱 ,2012年01期

【分类号】P447
【下载频次】26

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