【摘要】 目的探讨合肥市1999-2009年度间日疟发病的季节性及其气象因素的关系,为预防和减少合肥市间日疟病例的发生提供理论依据。方法以1999年1月至2009年12月合肥市间日疟确诊717例病例为研究对象,应用集中度和圆形分布法对疟疾发病进行季节性分析;应用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析合肥市间日疟与各种气象因素之间的关系。结果合肥市1999~2009年11年累积间日疟发病有明显的季节性(P<0.01),除了2000年以外,其它各年份发病均有明显的季节性(P2001<0.05,P其余<0.01),各年份发病高峰日不相同或不全相同(F=13.8946,P<0.01)。平均高峰日为8月19日,发病高峰日最早出现在1999年7月12日,最晚出现在2002年9月17日,两者相差67d。相关分析表明,合肥市间日疟发病率与月均气温、月均最高气温、月均最低气温、发病前1月、2月平均气温、相对湿度、降雨量、发病前1月、2月降雨量、日照时数呈正相关,与月均气压呈负相关。逐步回归方程为Y=-0.03+5.018×10-4X1+4.968×10-4X(2Y、X1、X2分别代表发病率、最低气温和发病前2月平均气温),R2=0.465。结论疟疾发病具有明显的季节性,气象因素影响着合肥市间日疟的发病变化,尤其是月均气温和最低气温。在以后的预防工作中应充分考虑其发病的季节特点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To discuss the correlation between the morbidity of Plasmodium vivax malaria and meteorological factors in Hefei.Methods A total of 717 confirmed Plasmodium vivax malaria cases were enrolled in Hefei between January 1999 and December 2009.The centralization and circular distribution method were applied to analyze the seasonal characteris tics of the morbidity of Plasmodium vivax malaria.The correlation analysis and the linear stepwise regression analysis were ap plied to discover the relationship between the morbidity of Plasmodium vivax malaria and meteorological factors.Results The incidence of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Hefei during 1999-2009 showed an obvious seasonal distribution feature(P<0.01).In addition to the 2000,there were obvious peak day and crest time of Plasmodium vivax malaria(P2001<0.05,P<0.01),and the peak day ofPlasmodium vivaxmalaria in each year was different or partly different(F=13.8946,P<0.01).August 19 was the aver age peak morbidity day with yearly variation.The peak day appeared earlier in July 12,1999 and later in September 17,2002 with time gap of 67 days.The morbidity of Plasmodium vivax malaria was negatively corelatedto to average temperature,highest temperature,lowest temperature,the average monthly temperature before one or two months,relative humidity,rainfall,the aver age monthly rainfall before one or two months and sunlight,but positiverly corelated to the average monthly atmospheric pres sure.Regression equation Y=-0.03+5.018×10-4X1+4.968×10-4X2(Y=monthly morbidity ofPlasmodium vivaxmalaria,X1=month ly lowest temperature,X2=the average monthly temperature before two months),R2=0.465.Conclusions The morbidity ofPlas modium vivax malaria displayed an obvious seasonal trend and meteorological factors could affect the morbidity of Plasmodium vivaxmalaria in Hefei,particularly the average monthly temperature and minimum temperature.更多还原