【摘要】 为探索次表层水温对广东旱涝的影响,用Argo剖面浮标等实测资料,分析了太平洋-印度洋暖池(简称太-印暖池)次表层水温异常对广东旱涝的影响。结果表明:冬季,太-印暖池次表层水温偏暖(冷)时,可能引起Walker环流加强(减弱),夏季西北太平洋副热带高压强度较常年同期偏弱(强),位置偏北(南),直接导致南海夏季风爆发时间偏早(晚),有利(不利)于西南部暖湿海洋水汽向广东输送,导致广东降水偏多(少)。冬季,太-印暖池次表层水温偏暖(冷),翌年广东降水偏多(少),出现涝年(旱年)是主要现象。更多还原

【Abstract】 Argo profile buoy data are used to analyze the effects of the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly(SOTA) in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool on the droughts and floods in Guangdong.The results show that when the SOTA in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is colder(or warmer) in winter,the Walker circulation can be enhanced(or weakened),and the Western Pacific Subtropical High will be weakened(or enhanced) and will stretch northward(or southward).In the meantime the onset of summer monsoon over the South China Sea becomes earlier(or later),which is advantageous(or disadvantageous) to the transportation of warm water vapor to Guangdong,and precipitation in Guangdong will be abnormally more(or less).In conclusion,if SOTA in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool becomes warmer(or colder) in winter,the coming year will mainly witness more(or less) precipitation and flood(drought) in Guangdong.更多还原