【摘要】 根据1951―2010年广东省26个气象站点的气温资料,统计了6个极端气温指数,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-kendall趋势和突变检验等方法对广东省极端气温时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,在时间上,近60年来广东省气温总体上具有倾向极端的趋势,但倾向极端高温的趋势不明显,而倾向极端低温的趋势却十分明显。6个极端气温指数均检测到有突变发生,突变时间集中在20世纪90年代和21世纪初期,除了指数TX90%(暖日天数),其余5个指数——SU(夏日天数)、FD(霜日天数)、TN90%(暖夜天数)、TX10%(冷日天数)、TN10%(冷夜天数)在突变后均呈现增加趋势,并且速度加快。与1961―1980年气温倾向极端的趋势不明显相比,1981―2010年气温倾向极端的趋势非常明显,并且具有倾向极端高温和极端低温的双向趋势。而在空间差异上,4个相对阈值指数在空间上的分布均为镶嵌式的分布,大致呈现出中部与东西两端一致,北部的变化幅度最小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Six extreme temperature indexes were calculated with the temperature data of 26 meteorological stations in Guangdong from 1951 to 2010.The methods of linear trend estimation,Mann-kendall trend test and abrupt test were used to study the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of the extreme temperature in the province.The results indicated that the temperature in Guangdong had a tendency towards extremity in the last 60 years.The tendency towards extreme high temperature was not notable,but that towards extreme low is significant.All the six temperature indexes were tested to have an abrupt change,which occurred mainly in the 1990s and early 21 century.Except the TX90%(Warm days),the rest of the indexes,namely SU(Summer days),FD(Frost days),TN90%(Warm nights),TX10%(Cold days) and TN10%(Cold nights),all presented a fast increasing trend after the abrupt change.As compared with the period of 1960-1981 when the tendency of temperature extremity was not significant,the period of 1981-2010 had a notable trend to not only extremely high temperature,but also extremely low.As for the spatial difference,the four percentage threshold indexes all had a mosaic distribution,roughly presenting a consistency pattern among the central,western and eastern regions in the province,while in the northern region the range of temperature change was less.更多还原