【摘要】 分析网络舆情事件的热度,研究网络舆情危机的形成机制,构建网络舆情危机预警的系统动力学模型。采用Vensim PLE软件对模型仿真,验证并分析模型的有效性和灵敏度,仿真结果表明该模型能够较好地拟合网络舆情事件中热度的形成过程。分析事件作用、网民作用、媒体作用和政府作用等四方面对网络舆情热度的影响,给出了网络舆情危机预警策略与对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,we analyze the heat degree on Internet public opinion events and the formation and development of Internet public opinions crisis.The Internet public opinion crisis early warning system dynamics model is constructed.Using Vensim PLE software,we then stimulate the model and take the effectiveness and the sensitivity analysis.The results show that the simulation model can well fit the forming of Internet public opinion heat on Internet public opinion events.The model presents the impact of events force,netizen force,media force and government force to the Internet public opinion heat.Finally,suggestions and countermeasures to the Internet public opinion crisis early warning strategy are put forward.更多还原