【摘要】 目的:探讨影响江门地区严重创伤结局的各种因素,建立适合本地区使用的严重创伤结局预测模型（AASCOT）,为提高创伤救治水平及合理分配医疗资源提供依据。方法:回顾性分析本地区1092例严重创伤患者的资料,以严重创伤生存率为反应变量,对解剖损伤评分、SIRS评分、生理评分等进行Logistic回归分析,并计算各种因素的权重系数。结果:GCS、SIRS和收缩压（SBP）进入Logistic回归方程,解剖损伤评分及年龄因素并未进入回归方程。AASCOT模型的非线性回归方程为Ps=1/(1+e^-b),e=2.718282;其中钝伤b=-5.964+1.548×GCS+1.199×Sbp+（-0.510）×SIRS;穿透伤b=-4.057+1.283×GCS+1.020×Sbp+（-0.946）×SIRS。结论:GCS、SIRS和SBP是影响本地区严重创伤结局的重要因素;AASCOT模型适合本地区国人的创伤结局预测,建议在本地区推广使用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To explore the various factors influencing the major trauma outcome and to establish the major trauma outcome prediction model（AASCOT） using the region in order to improve the level of trauma care and to provide basis for reasonable distribution of medical resources.Methods:The clinical data of 1092 patients with major trauma in the region were analyzed retrospectively.Major trauma survival rate was the response variable,the anatomic injury score,SIRS score,physiological score were Logistic regression analysis and calculated various factors weight coefficient.Results:GCS,SIRS and systolic blood pressure（SBP） into the Logistic regression equation, anatomic injury score and age factors did not enter the regression equation.AASCOT model for nonlinear regression equation was Ps = l/(l+e^-b),e=2.718282.The blunt trauma b=-5.964 + 1.548xGCS + 1.199xSBP+（-0.510）×SIRS. The penetrating trauma b=-4.057+1.283xGCS+1.020xSBP+（-0.946）×SIRS.Conclusion:The factors associated with major trauma patients include GCS,SIRS and SBP.AASCOT model is more suitable for people of the district in forecasting the out of trauma.更多还原