【摘要】 从R&D投入对经济系统的影响机理出发,考虑R&D投入的流量和存量两种作用方式,以Cobb-Douglas生产函数为基础,运用统计分析的原理和方法,提出了一个研究R&D投入对GDP影响的时间延迟和对GDP增长贡献程度的分析框架,并利用上海市的相关统计数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,上海市R&D活动本身的研发周期同其综合社会周期相同,流量影响的滞后周期为投资当年和投资后的第8年,存量影响的平均滞后周期为6年。基于流量影响的研究结果表明,以产业资本形态投入的资金产出弹性大于以R&D形态投入的资金产出弹性,以R&D形态投入的资金产出弹性大于以劳动力形态投入的资金产出弹性。基于存量影响的研究结果表明,以劳动力形态投入的资金产出弹性大于以R&D形态投入的资金产出弹性,以R&D形态投入的资金的产出弹性大于以产业资本形态投入的资金产出弹性。案例分析的基本结论同上海市的现实情况相符合,表明所提出的研究框架有较好的适用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the mechanism of R&D investment impacting on the economic system,considering the flow and stock two kings of impact modes,using Cobb-Douglas production function,combining with the principles and methods of statistical analysis,this paper proposed a framework to study the delay time and impact intensity of R&D investment on GDP,and develops a empirical test using the relevant statistical data of Shanghai to verify the framework.The empirical test results show that the cycle of the R&D activities per se in Shanghai is same with the cycle of comprehensive social function.The cycle of R&D investment flow on GDP is first year and 8th year while the cycle time of comprehensive social function of R&D input stock on GDP is 6 year,and under the current resource allocation conditions,the invest performance of industrial capital is better than that of R&D activities while the latter is better than that of labor force based on the R&D input flow impact,and the performance of input on labor force is better than that of R&D activities while the latter is better than that of industrial capital based on the R&D input stock impact.The basic conclusions from the case study consistent with the reality of Shanghai,indicating that the research framework proposed in this paper have well applicability.更多还原