【摘要】 水资源优化配置是水资源管理中重要且复杂的课题。随着我国"千亿斤粮食增产计划"的提出,作为重要粮食产区的松花江流域面临着水资源能否承载粮食增产的迫切问题。然而,至今该区域鲜有涉及到粮食增产计划的水资源配置研究。本文选取松花江流域的哈尔滨市为研究对象,通过建立多目标规划模型,得到该区域2020年和2030年(p=75%)的水资源优化配置方案。配置结果可将各分区按农业生产潜力划分为4类:第一类为哈尔滨市区。随着城镇化进程加快,哈尔滨市区将会成为农业用水最为短缺的分区。在此形势下,哈尔滨市区的粮食增产空间很小;第二类为五常、尚志和宾县分区。分区内也存在农业用水短缺的现象。但由于短缺程度较小,如能加大节水措施和水利工程措施的建设力度,尚有粮食增产的可能;第三类为阿城、呼兰、木兰和方正分区。伴随着城镇化进程的进一步加快,分区内将会产生一定的农业用水短缺风险。根据分区情况,可通过加强节水措施建设来消除风险。分区内具备一定规模的粮食增产空间;第四类为双城、巴彦、依兰、延寿和通河等水资源条件较好的分区。分区内具备农业大规模发展的潜力。应提高水、土资源开发利用程度以确保粮食增产。研究成果可为制定哈尔滨地区实现区域水资源可持续利用的粮食增产计划提供科学建议和决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resource allocation (WRA) is a useful but complicated topic in water resource management. With the targets set out in the Plan of Newly Increasing Yield (NIY) of 10×10 11 Jin (1 kg=2 Jin) from 2009 to 2020, the immediate question for the Songhua River Region (SHRR) is whether water is sufficient to support the required yield increase. Very few studies have considered to what degree this plan influences the solution of WRA and how to adapt. This paper used a multi-objective programming model for WRA across the Harbin region located in the SHRR in 2020 and 2030 (p=75%). The Harbin region can be classified into four types of sub-regions according to WRA: Type Ⅰ is Harbin city zone. With rapid urbanization, Harbin city zone has the highest risk of agricultural water shortage. Considering the severe situation, there is little space for Harbin city zone to reach the NIY goal. Type Ⅱ is sub- regions including Wuchang, Shangzhi and Binxian. There are some agricultural water shortage risks in this type region. Because the water shortage is relatively small, it is possible to increase agricultural production through strengthening agricultural water-saving countermeasures and constructing water conservation facilities. Type Ⅲ is sub-regions including Acheng, Hulan, Mulan and Fangzheng. In this type region, there may be a water shortage if the rate of urbanization accelerates. According to local conditions, it is needed to enhance water-saving countermeasures to increase agricultural production to a certain degree. Type Ⅳ is sub-regions including Shuangcheng, Bayan, Yilan, Yanshou and Tonghe. There are good water conditions for the extensive development of agriculture. Nevertheless, in order to ensure an increase in agricultural production, it is necessary to enhance the way in which water is utilized and consider soil resources. These results will help decision makers make a scientific NIY plan for the Harbin region for sustainable utilization of regional water resources and an increase in agricultural production.更多还原