【摘要】 在分析高速公路施工区上游过渡区驾驶员选择间隙行为的基础上,采用Logistic模型描述驾驶员接受和拒绝间隙的行为分析高速公路施工区车辆汇入的可接受间隙,并建立了可接受间隙模型。研究驾驶员接受间隙时车辆汇入的概率,从汇入过程选择6个自变量,结合实测数据采用混合逐步选择法得到:后相对车头时距和被超车车辆速度2个自变量与汇入概率显著相关。检验结果表明:模型具有较好的拟合度和预测精度。利用可接受间隙模型,提出了临界可接受间隙的计算公式。研究结论可对施工区上游过渡区长度设计和施工区交通组织和管理提供技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 A model was built for the gap acceptance using the analysis method of logistic model to describe the driver behavior of gap acceptance and rejection in the upstream transition area to study the gap acceptance of merging in the expressway work zone.Merge probability of driver accepted gap was studied in gap acceptance model and 6 independent variables were selected from merging.It was found that 2 independent variables,the back relative headway,vehicle speed of being overtaken were significantly related to merge probability based on actual data and mixed step-by-step selection method.The proposed logistic regression model was tested on the fittness and predictive accuracy and the encouraging result was achieved.A critical gap calculation formula was derived from the gap acceptance model.The conclusion provided technical support for the design of upstream transition length,traffic organization and management of the work zone.更多还原