【摘要】 经济内部失衡或者外部失衡对汇率的影响都是不确定的,但是,当经济内外部同时失衡时,汇率贬值或政府干预外汇市场的可能性最大。实证结果支持了上述结论。当美国经济内外部同时失衡时,美元贬值或美国政府干预外汇市场的概率就会提高27个百分点。这意味着,通过汇率变动,美国将内部问题外部化了。理解了美元汇率变动的原因实际上也就理解了21世纪初期以来人民币面临升值压力的原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on PFS model, this paper examines influences of U.S. economic imbalances on the U.S. dollar exchange rate from the perspective of political economy by constructing a binary dependent variable (BDV) model. It is found that the influence of the internal economic imbalances or external imbalances to the exchange rate is uncertain. However, when internal and external economic imbalances existing at the same time, depreciation is most likely to happen. The empirical results support the above argumentation. When the U.S. economic internal and external imbalances emerges at the same time, the probability of the dollar depreciation or the U S government intervention in the foreign exchange market will increase by 27 percentage. This indicates that the U S government externalizes the internal problems through affecting exchange rates.更多还原