【摘要】 笔者基于VAR模型对我国信贷市场利率与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)信贷市场利率对投资、消费均处于负向冲击并有时滞,但对投资的影响更显著。投资、消费对信贷市场利率的影响非常有限。(2)投资波动对产出波动起主要作用;产出对投资波动和消费波动的影响程度有限;投资波动影响消费波动的程度远远大于后者对前者。基于这些分析结论,笔者提出若干政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper empirically analysizes of the relationship between the credit market interest rates and economic fluctuations by VAR model.The results of the study indicate that:(1) credit market interest rates on investment and consumption are in a negative and obvious impact with certain delay.And the impact on credit market interest rates from investment and consumption is very limited.(2) Investment fluctuations play a major role on output cycles.Output cycles have an impact on investment and consumption fluctuations but to a limited extent.The degree of investment fluctuations affecting consumption fluctuations is far greater than the latter on the former.Policy proposal made on these conclusions.更多还原