【摘要】 企业成立时的初始规模和生产率对于企业的生存发展具有重要影响。本文利用1995～2009年间上海市24297家新成立的规模以上工业企业数据,采用COX风险比例模型和指数回归(PH)方法,研究了初始规模、生产率对企业生存发展的影响。研究发现,初始规模、生产率均对企业生存发展有着显著的非线性影响,初始规模越大,企业风险率越低,生存时间越长,但这种影响的边际效应递减;初始生产率与企业生存时间存在U型曲线,即低效率和高效率企业的生存时间较长,而中等效率企业的生存时间较短。非技术密集型企业的生存时间对企业的初始规模更为敏感,而技术密集型企业的生存时间受初始生产率影响更为显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is in a critical period of rapid industrialization and economic transition.As an important part of microeconomic,enterprise survival and development are playing an important role in the process of policy making and industrial upgrading promotion.Empirical research has showed that start-up costs,profitability,industry threshold levels,and macroeconomic market environment might have significant impacts on survival and development of enterprises.However,due to the lack of enterprises microeconomic statistics in China,empirical studies focus on the survival and development of enterprises is very few.This paper intends to select Shanghai as the representative and study the determinants of survival and development of domestic enterprises.Based on the data of 24297 industrial enterprises which was established during 1995 to 2009 in Shanghai,we use COX proportional hazards model and exponential regression(PH) method to study the determinants of enterprises’ survival.In the model,enterprises survival time is independent variable and dependent variables include start-up size,initial productivity,industrial technical standards,return on sales(ROS),GDP growth rate and ownership.Our evidence shows that both start-up size and initial productivity have a significant-nonlinear effect on survival time of enterprises.There is a significant negative correlation between start-up size and enterprise hazards risk,and this shows that enterprises with lager start-up sizes could confront with lower hazard rate or have longer survival time in the process of development.This confirms the existence of "liability of smallness"for China’s manufacturing firms.But for the variable of square of start-up size,there is a significant positive correlation with enterprise hazard rate,which means the marginal effect of scale decreases gradually.However,the effect of initial productivity is completely opposite to the variable of start-up size.A U curve is found between initial productivity and enterprises survival time.That means enterprises with lower or higher productivity usually survive longer than the medium does,which is different from most of the previous studies.As for other variables,they also correlate with enterprises’ hazards risk significantly.Technological enterprises might have lower hazard risk and higher survival ability than the non-technological enterprises,higher-ROS enterprises could have lower risk in the competitive market and have longer business life;where there is a higher GDP growth rate,there is more conducive to the survival of regional enterprises;and enterprises in the type of shareholding system,private sector,joint ventures,foreign and even Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan capital have a lower hazard risk compared to those of state-or collective economic-owned.Furthermore,this paper explores the difference of survival hazard rate between non-technological and technological enterprises.The result shows that the survival hazard rate of non-technological enterprises is more sensitive to start-up size,whereas technological enterprises’ survival time is more affected by initial productivity which has not a significant effect on non-technological enterprises survival.ROS has more significant impacts on non-technological enterprises than technological enterprises.The findings in this paper could help the enterprise and government to a certain understanding of industrial development,and also provide more information for industrial policy makers to set up smart strategies and policies.For example,enterprises with larger start-up size will probably have a more stable survival and development.In order to maintain economic vitality,the government can pay more attention to the living conditions of small businesses;just as the same,government should pay more attention to the development of middle productivity enterprises.In addition,our study can also serve to predict enterprises’ survival time,and further help government to explore flexible period land transfer system.更多还原