【摘要】 上海地处黄浦江与长江交汇口,由于污染源多、水质差等诸多因素,导致可用清洁水短缺。本文采用回归分析方法模拟了上海水污染水平、可用清洁水量、水需求的影响因素以及相对可用清洁水量指标(RCWA),并以可用清洁水量与水需求的比例,考察了上海可用清洁水和水需求近30年来的演变趋势。上海2011年RCWA值为65,意味着上海当前清洁水需求只大致相当于其可用清洁水量的150%。虽然1990年代以来上海经济和技术的进步以及政府的政策措施对水资源开发发挥了较为显著的积极作用,但该指标说明其水资源可持续利用仍然面临巨大的挑战。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shanghai,situated on the Huangpu River and on the Yangtze River Estuary,still suffers acutely from a lack of available clean water,mainly due to poor water quality.This research paper uses regression analysis to model the factors affecting water pollution levels and the availability of,and demand for,clean water in the city.We introduce the Relative Clean Water Availability(RCWA) indicator,which measures the ratio of clean water availability to demand,and use it to assess the trends associated with clean water availability and demand since the reform and opening up.We find that RCWA currently stands at around 65,indicating a demand at around 150% of availability,throwing into serious doubt the sustainability of Shanghai’s water usage,though economic factors and government measures have both had a significant beneficial effect since the 1990s.更多还原