【摘要】 2009年6月证监会启动新股发行改革,直指"市场化"目标,新股发行市场投资者间的竞争博弈加剧。基于演化博弈视角,引入噪声交易理论,刻画我国新股发行市场投资者理性行为与非理性行为的动态变化,模拟市场变动的理论演化路径,应用新股发行市场的月度数据做实证检验,验证演化博弈模型的理论路径与现实相符,最后,结合演化博弈模型动态路径与实证结果来总结新一轮新股发行改革的特征,指出市场化改革提高了新股发行市场的理性程度,一定程度上抑制了市场非理性行为,而新股发行的信息揭示与风险提示将是下一阶段改革的重要目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The IPO reform set up by the CSRC in June 2009,which targets "market-oriented" goal,exacerbates the competition between investors in the primary market.Based on evolution game model,the noise trading theory is introduced to depict dynamic changes regarding rational and irrational behaviors in the primary market,and simulate the theoretical evolution path by assigning evolution game model parameters.An empirical analysis conducted by using the IPO monthly data showes that the theoretic evolution path is in line with the actual fact.By applying the evolution game model and the empirical conclusion,features are summarized about the latest IPO reform,proposing that the market-oriented reform has accelerated IPO markets in a rational way,which curbs irrational market behaviors to some extent,and the information disclosure about IPO and risk presentation will be important targets for the reform in the next cycle.更多还原