【摘要】 通过建立灰色理论的GM(1,1)、本底趋势线两个不同的预测模型,从上海海外入境旅游人数的视角,研究世博会对海外入境旅游人数影响力的大小。经过对比分析,评价两种预测方法,认为本底趋势线模型更适合预测旅游业的发展趋势,对上海世博会进行旅游业影响力的定量评估更合理。将2010年的实际值与本底趋势线预测值对比,得出2010年上海世博会对上海海外入境旅游人次的影响力为21.24%,最后提出了进一步提高预测精度的改进意见。更多还原

【Abstract】 Two different predictive models,i.e.the gray theory GM(1,1) and the bottom line,are established on the basis of the number of inbound tourism in Shanghai to investigate into the influence of World Expo on the number of inbound tourism.Comparative analysis reveals that the bottom trend line model is more suitable for the prediction of tourism development trend and the quantitative evaluation of the influence of Shanghai World Expo on tourism.Comparing the predicted number with the actual one in 2010,it is found that the contribution of Shanghai World Expo to the attraction of overseas tourists is 21.24%.Finally,suggestions to improve the accuracy of prediction are put forward.更多还原