【摘要】 文章选取1992—2010年的季度数据,通过建立各变量的VAR模型和VEC模型,对我国信贷供给结构与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:中长期贷款、短期贷款与产出没有格兰杰因果关系,其它贷款与产出存在着相互因果关系,同时,信贷供给结构各变量均不引起通货膨胀的变化,而通货膨胀是中长期贷款、短期贷款变化的原因;从信贷供给结构各变量来看,其它贷款是引起我国经济波动的主要原因;中长期贷款、短期贷款、其它贷款三者之间存在不同程度的相互影响。基于这些分析结论,文章提出若干信贷政策的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Selecting the quarterly data from 1992 to 2010,basing on a VAR model,this paper conducts an empirical analy sis of the relationship between the credit supply structure and economic fluctuations.The results of the study as following,firstly,there are no Granger relationship between output and long-term loans,short-term loans,while there are mutual Granger relationship between output and other loans.Meanwhile,the variables of the credit supply structure are not caused the changes of inflation,and inflation can cause the changes of long-term loans and short-term loans.Secondly,from the per spective of the variables of the credit supply structure,the other loans is the main cause of Chinese economic fluctuations.Thirdly,there are different interactions between long-term loans,short-term loans,and other loans.Based on these conclu sions,the paper gives some policy implications on credit policy.更多还原