【摘要】 针对区域作物产量历史数据较少的情况,以及作物趋势产量的分析需划分较短时段逐步回归的要求,将信息扩散技术引入作物干旱风险分析研究中,利用信息扩散近似推理方法逐步回归各时段的趋势产量,并根据实际产量与趋势产量的差别,计算历年的作物干旱减产率.在此基础上,将减产率样本点数据集值化,利用信息扩散模型分析减产率的概率分布.以西安市为例,利用信息扩散技术对该区域小麦干旱进行风险分析,结果表明,西安市小麦受损程度主要集中在10%以内,受损程度20%以上可能性很小.更多还原

【Abstract】 In general,the historical data recording for natural disaster is not enough to be used for estimating,and current product analysis must take regression in shorter phase.In this paper,the information diffusion method is put forward to change single sample into sets,and a quantitatively analyzing model for crop drought risk is suggested.The model is applied in a case study in Xi′an city,the results show that the wheat drought frequency in the region is high,but the degree of product loss is low.Most of the losses are below 10%,and the possibility that losses are more than 20% is very small.更多还原