【摘要】 针对城市的交通拥堵问题,本文提出了一种交通拥堵流量范围界定及拥堵预测的方法。首先采用均值变点理论寻找出交通拥堵点,确定拥堵流量范围,然后通过小波分析与ARMA相结合的交通流组合预测模型,实现了拥堵点的实时预测。并以贵阳市中心城区数据为例,验证方法的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 A traffic congestion flow range and congestion prediction method was presented.Firstly the mean change-point theory was used to find out the traffic congestion points,determining congestion flow range,and then through the wavelet analysis and ARMA traffic flow combined forecast model were utilized to realize the real time prediction of congestion points.An example of Guiyang City verifies the effectiveness of the forecasting model.更多还原