【摘要】 采用遥感估算降水模型RFE 2.0(Rainfall Estimation Algorithm Version 2)模拟了2009年西藏高原的区域降水,并结合该地区气象站降水观测资料分别从日、月、年尺度上评价了该模型在西藏高原降水估算中的适用性,最后通过系数校正分析了2009年8月西藏高原降水量和年降水量的分布格局。结果表明,RFE2.0模型日降水量模拟值与观测值的相关系数在0.40以上的测站占46%,变化趋势较一致,但在日降水量较小时(接近零)模拟结果不稳定,在降水量较大时(>15mm)模拟结果一般会偏低;月平均降水量模拟结果与观测结果的相关系数在0.80以上的测站占62%,模拟结果较好地反映了观测结果的变化趋势,但个别月份的模拟结果会出现偏差。雨季降水量的模拟结果明显好于干季,为进一步提高模拟精度,确定雨季校正系数为1.133,干季校正系数为1.265;年尺度上降水量的模拟值与观测值的相关系数为0.368(P=0.026)。整体来看,遥感估算降水模型(RFE2.0)模拟的西藏高原降水结果较好,可为西藏高原降水模拟提供借鉴和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 There have always been debates as to predict the precipitation in the Tibet Plateau,where rugged terrain and the pool availability of sparse meteorological stations have presented huge challenges for almost all existing models.The application of REF 2.0(Rainfall Estimation Algorithm Version 2) in the Tibet Plateau had been described.At first,the suitability of the application was evaluated using the meteorological record at 39 stations in the Tibet Plateau at daily,monthly and annual levels,then the August precipitation pattern,and whole year of 2009 were estimated based on the correction of the coefficient of the model.The results showed a good tendency between the simulated and observed daily precipitation,with 46% sites which correlation coefficient is above 0.40;but the simulation was very sensitive when the precipitation was small(close to 0 mm),and underestimated when the precipitation is large(>15 mm).As for month scale,the correlation coefficient in 62% sites is above 0.80,but the simulation results were a little bit overestimated.The simulated precipitation results in rainy season is significantly-better than that in dry season,and the correction coefficient of 1.133 and 1.265 could be applied respectively in rainy and dry seasons to improve the estimate.The correction coefficient of the annual simulation with the annual precipitation from the 30 meteorological stations across the Plateau is 0.368 with the P-value of 0.026.Overall,RFE 2.0 model shows good capabilities in estimating the precipitation in Tibet Plateau,and can provide the reference for precipitation simulation in the Plateau.更多还原