【摘要】 针对中国人口现状和未来的发展趋势,提出了高斯-泊松-莱斯利模型,该方法全面考虑了人口年龄结构、人口性别比等因素,同时对成熟的莱斯利模型进行了优化改进.以此得到的分析结果可以为国家在人口问题方面的政策规划提出建设性的意见.更多还原

【Abstract】 This article discusses the nowadays China’s population and the development in the future.After taking the age structure,sexual rate,etc.into consideration,a 4-step improvement on the mature Leslie Model includes extension,optimization,rationalization and Gauss-Poisson randomization is performed.Then the fire-new Gauss-Poisson-Leslie Model is formed as kernel model to analyze and forecast population.The results are meaningful on the policy instituting.更多还原