【摘要】 本文在简单回顾江苏低碳经济研究概况的基础上,提出了江苏工业低碳化发展的3个阶段;利用政府间气候变化专门委员会提出的相关方法,估算了1986~2009年江苏工业的碳排放量和排放强度。结果表明,江苏工业碳排放量呈指数形式增长,而碳排放强度呈对数形式下降;基于对各种可能的工业增长速度和碳排放强度下降速度的设定,对江苏工业低碳化的情景进行了分析。结果表明,到2020年,江苏应当选择工业增长保持在12%左右,碳排放强度下降速度保持在7%左右的工业低碳化发展路径。为保证这一排放情景的实现,就必须推进能源效率提高、加快工业结构升级和加强重点行业管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 The three stages of industrial low carbonization development in Jiangsu was proposed after simply reviewing the low carbon economic study about Jiangsu.The carbon emission and its intensity of Jiangsu’s industry from 1986 to 2009 were estimated by using the method advanced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.The result indicated that the Jiangsu’s industry carbon emission assumes the exponential form to grow and the carbon emissions intensity assumes the logarithmic form to drop.The scenario of industrial low carbonization in Jiangsu was analyzed based on the settings of some kind of industrial growth rates and the descent rates of the carbon emissions intensity.The result indicated that,to 2020,Jiangsu ought to maintain the industry growth rate at 12% and the carbon emissions intensity rate of descent at 7% in order to realize the low carbonization development of industry.At the same time,Jiangsu ought to enhance the energy efficiency,promote the industrial structure and strengthen the management of key industrial sections.更多还原