【摘要】 对2000年至2011年间纱线产量、化纤产量、棉花价格的相关关系进行实证研究。运用协整理论分析棉花价格与纺织生产长期相关性,在协整的基础上分析棉花价格变动、纱线产量变动、化纤产量变动的Granger因果。结果表明:棉花价格、纱线生产、化纤生产之间具有长期协整关系,但纱线生产、化纤生产对棉花价格的影响有限;纺织行业生产量变动不是引起棉花价格变动的Granger原因;化纤作为棉花替代品的作用不明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the correlation of yarn production,chemical fiber production and cotton price from 2000 to 2011 in China.The co-integration theory is used to study the long-term correlation of cotton price and textile production,along with Granger causality of varies in cotton price,yarn production,and chemical fiber production.The results reveal that there exists a long-term co-integration correlation between cotton price,yarn production and chemical fiber production.However,yarn production and chemical fiber production have limited impact on cotton price;the variation in textile production does not play the role of Granger causality of the change of cotton price;and the effect of chemical fiber being an alternative to cotton is not prominent.更多还原