【摘要】 提出了适用于互联大电网低频振荡概率稳定性分析指标及方法,并对某实际互联大电网进行了概率分析。在已知电网各种不确定因素的概率分布条件下,基于小扰动计算方法,利用两点估计计算出这些不确定因素引起系统低频振荡概率大小。利用风险评估理论对多重扰动可能引起的系统低频振荡失稳情况进行了分析,给出了电网的控制代价与低频振荡风险。通过对小扰动和大扰动综合概率分析,给出了电网公司在承担风险与提高输电能力时的比较途径,可供电网运行人员在权衡经济型与安全性时参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The index and methods to analysis low-frequency oscillation probability stability of large-scale interconnected power grids were proposed and the probabilistic analysis of a certain actual large-scale interconnected power grid was performed.Under the condition that probabilistic distribution of various uncertain factors of power grid were known,based on computation method for small signal stability the probabilities of low-frequency oscillation caused by these uncertain factors were calculated by two-point-estimation.Using risk estimation,the system instability due to low-frequency oscillation that might be caused by multiple disturbances was analyzed,and the cost for the control and the risk of instability due to low-frequency oscillation were given.Through integrated probability analysis,in which small-disturbance model was combined with large-disturbance model,an approach of comparing the risk assumed by power grid company with the value from increasing transmission capability was given,and it might be available for reference to power grid dispatchers during judging and weighing between economy and security of power grid.更多还原