【摘要】 白洋淀是华北平原最大的湖泊湿地,对维持华北平原生态平衡具有极其重要的作用。近年来,白洋淀流域水源减少已经引起了严重的生态环境问题,本文以唐河上游流域为例,根据流域内1960-2008年水文气象数据,采用气候弹性系数和水文模拟方法,研究了气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流量的影响。结果表明:年径流下降趋势显著,下降速率为1.7mm/a,且径流在1980年前后发生了突变;气候变化对唐河上游流域径流减少的贡献率为38%~40%,人类活动对径流的减少起主导作用,为60%~62%。为维持白洋淀的生态功能,必须保证一定的最小生态需水量,开展湿地生态用水调度与监管。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the largest wetland in the North China Plain, Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP. In the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate variability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmental problems. In this study, we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake, based on analyses of hydrologic changes of upper Tanghe catchment from 1960 to 2008. Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities. The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly (P > 0.05) by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identified around the year 1980. The quantification results indicated that climate variations accounted for 38%-40% of decrease in streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%-62%. Therefore, human activities played a dominant influence in the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. To keep the ecosystem health of Baiyangdian Lake, we suggest that minimum eco-water demand and integrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.更多还原