【摘要】 利用1960-2007年月平均降水和年平均降水数据,采用墨西哥帽小波连续函数,对贵州省紫云县麦岗水库流域近48年来降水时间序列的季节变化和年际变化进行多尺度分析,揭示了麦岗水库流域降水变化多时间尺度的结构特征,并提取各季节和年降水序列的周期变化及突变点。结果表明,不同季节和年降水存在不同时间尺度的变化周期。春季降水的变化周期为8年和2年,夏季降水的变化周期为8年和1年,秋季降水的变化周期为16年和1年,冬季降水的变化周期为3年和12年,年降水的变化周期为1年和8年。夏季降水和年降水均有1年和8年的变化周期。通过小波系数过程曲线可知,夏季降水与年降水的变化趋势一致,年降水变化在较大程度上受到夏季降水变化的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Maigang Reservoir catchment is located in Ziyun County of Guizhou Province,Southwest China.It has sub-tropical monsoon humid climate and is a carbonate-rock-dominated catchment of 7.5 km2.The environment here is very fragile,accompanied with serious problems,such as soil erosion,and rockification.Precipitation influences the environment to a great extent.So it is important to analyze the precipitation changes.Wavelet analysis is evolved from Fourier analysis,and it is usually used in multiple-scale analysis of the earth surface process,such as precipitation,runoff and temperature time series.It is an alternative and effective approach to analyze climate change at multi-time scales and forecast short-time climate variations.Based on the principle of wavelet analysis,the Mexican hat wavelet was chosen as the mother wavelet for continuous wavelet analysis in this paper: the multi-time scales characteristics of seasonal and annual precipitation in the past 48 years(1960-2007) of Maigang reservoir catchment were analyzed based on the monthly and annual precipitation from 1960 to 2007 by using Mexican Hat wavelet analysis.The periodic oscillation of precipitation variations and the points of abrupt changes of different time scales in the precipitation series of different seasons and years were discovered.The conclusions can be shown as follows.(1) The periodic oscillations of the spring precipitation were 8 years and 2 years.(2) There were periodic oscillations of 8 years and 1 year for both summer and annual precipitation.(3) The periodic oscillations of the autumn precipitation were 16 years and 1 year.(4) There were periodic oscillations of 3 years and 8 years for the winter precipitation.(5) Both the summer and annual precipitation had the periodic oscillations of 1 year and 8 years,and had the same trends of precipitation changes.The summer precipitation obviously influenced the annual precipitation.更多还原